Forex trading plan for Jan. 28
US dollar got hit on Tuesday by the disappointing durable goods data: the headline reading contracted by 3.4% vs. 0.6% gain expected, while the base figure was down by 0.8%. The release is important, because it’s a leading indicator of production: falling purchase orders signal that manufacturers will decrease activity.
As a result, the markets will expect the Federal Reserve to sound more cautious at the meeting tomorrow. The Fed will issue its statement at 18:00 GMT.
EUR/USD kept correcting up and reached 1.1370 (50% Fibo of the post-ECB decline). The correction may extend to the 1.1500 area (inverse Head & Shoulders target; resistance line since Dec. 2014). Support is at 1.1210/25, 1.1100 and 1.1050.
Pound apparently has good support in the psychological 1.5000 area. GBP/USD rose to 1.5200. Above this level the pair may rise to 1.5265 and 1.5370. Support is at 1.5050. There will be no news from Britain tomorrow.
USD/JPY is consolidating within a triangle. Support is in the 117.25/15 area. Resistance is in the 118.65/85 zone. A break of this range can bring the pair either to 119.50 and 120.00 or to 115.85. Note that as the pair still hasn’t managed to break above the daily Ichimoku Cloud – that’s a reason to fear that the bulls will lack power. Much will depend on the outcome of the Fed’s meeting.
Support for NZD/USD is at 0.7370 and 0.7325. Resistance is at 0.7515 and 0.7550. The Reserve Bank of New Zealand is expected to keep rates unchanged tomorrow and remove or diminish the tightening bias (20:00 GMT).