Large banks: what to expect from NFP?
Goldman Sachs sounds rather optimistic ahead of the US January labor market report. These are the analysts’ forecasts:
Change in nonfarm payrolls: 250K (consensus 231K)
Unemployment rate: 5.5% (consensus 5.6%)
Average hourly earnings: +0.4% (consensus +0.3%)
BNP Paribas adjusted their NFP forecast moderately lower from initially expected 250K to 220K after the decline in the employment component in the US non-manufacturing ISM reading. "However, this will still leave the pace of job creation running at strong levels. Moreover, earnings numbers and the unemployment rate are probably more important for the Fed outlook at this point, and we continue to anticipate improvement in those components," analysts add.
Danske Bank looks for a total increase of 215K new jobs with 200K in the private sector and 15K new government jobs. Average hourly earnings are expected to rebound in January.