3 scenarios for EUR after today

The euro is steady as the market players expect the euro zone and Greek finance ministers to reach a compromise on financing Greece today.

Analysts at Barclays expect more volatility ahead regardless of the outcome of the negotiations. In their view, 3 outcomes are possible:

  1. The lack of agreement will be a very negative scenario for EUR.
  2. “An agreement with significant concessions for Greece may raise the perception of risks in Spain, resulting in significantly greater downside risk for EUR”.
  3. If Greece accepts the austerity measures, we may see some advance of the single currency in the short term. The currency’s decline in the coming months will slow down.


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