Forex trading plan for Feb. 17
EUR/USD consolidates above 1.1400 on Monday. Euro is supported by expectations that the euro zone finance ministers will find a solution of the Greek financial problems by the end of the day. There is hope that even if a compromise can't be reached - the ECOFIN meeting on Tuesday is another chance. You should also watch the February ZEW economic indices for euro zone (51.3 expected) and Germany (56.2 expected) tomorrow (10:00 GMT). Next bullish targets for EUR/USD are seen at 1.1500/30 and at 1.1670 and could be hit on the positive news from Greece or strong ZEW indices. On the other hand, a decline below the intraday support of 1.1360 would open the way down to 1.1280.
GBP/USD holds above the 55-day MA (1.5360), but is trading in the red zone. The cable is trying to enter the daily Ichimoku, supported by the BOE’s Carney hawkish speech delivered last week. Don’t miss the UK inflation figures tomorrow at 9:30 GMT. CPI is expected to have slowed from 0.5% to 0.3% in January, so the release contains a bearish risk for the pound inside. Next resistance lies at 1.5475 (23.6% Fibo), while support – at 1.5350 and 1.5200. The nearest future will show how sustainable the current rally is.
USD/JPY stopped dead in the 118.30/70 range. Today we’ve got some upbeat news from Japan: GDP increased by 0.6% in Q4 2014 after sliding by 0.5% in the previous quarter. Expectations for additional monetary stimulus from the Bank of Japan declined. Tomorrow there are no releases on the Japan’s agenda. The BOJ monthly meeting takes place on Wednesday.
NZD/USD was a big mover on Monday, gapping higher on upbeat New Zealand Q4 retail sales figures. Kiwi approached 50% Fibo from the late-January decline (0.7520). Break higher would open the way to 0.7600/20. AUD/USD consolidates around 0.7780 following the last week’s dip below the 0.7700 figure. Watch the RBA monetary policy meeting minutes at 00:30 GMT on Tuesday – we’ll see how dovish the regulator sounds. The release will impact both the Aussie and the kiwi.
Monday is a bank holiday in the United States. On Tuesday the Empire State Manufacturing Index will be released (forecast - downbeat). On Wednesday markets will focus on FOMC meeting minutes. This publication will likely define the market sentiment towards the US dollar more clearly.