Trading plan for Feb. 19
The Greek question continues dominating the EUR/USD pair. On Wednesday the exchange rate slipped below the 1.1400 support. Daily close below 1.1360 would be a bearish signal, opening the way towards 1.1310 and 1.1270. Resistance is seen at 1.1450. There is a market speculation that the ECB faces resistance from Germany to allow extra emergency lending for Greek banks. Earlier in the day Greece accused the Eurogroup of changing the draft they previously agreed on Tuesday just at the last minute.On Thursday the ECB is scheduled to release Monetary Policy Meeting Accounts for the first time, trying to increase transparency.
GBP/USD jumped to 1.5440 after the arrival of UK employment data. Unemployment rate lowered to 5.7% in December, while average wages rose from 1.7% to 2.1%. Later in the day the BOE minutes showed MPC voted unanimously to leave monetary policy unchanged. Despite the upbeat news, we remain skeptical about the long-term GBP/USD prospects: UK consumer prices keep on falling, playing against the rate hike expectations. Technically, the bulls could face resistance at the 1.5475 barrier. Watch the UK CBI Industrial Order Expectations on Thursday.
USD/JPY consolidates around the 119.00 mark. The yen met some buying interest on Wednesday after the BOJ left its monetary policy unchanged. Watch the Japanese trade balance on Thursday night. Demand for the commodity currencies remains limited. AUD/USD pulled down from the 0.7800 resistance area, while NZD/USD failed to overcome the 0.7600 mark (50% Fibonacci). New Zealand is scheduled to release PPI tonight.