NAB: risks for AUD
Analysts at NAB say that there are many risk factors for AUD at present:
- Australian CPI (watch the release tomorrow at 01:30 GMT);
- Excessive short positions;
- Economic situation in China;
- The speculation about US Fed’s policy.
According to the specialists, “if the Australian CPI comes in much weaker than expected, we could see a sharp AUD drop. However, with markets already pricing in 62% for an August RBA easing, the AUD/USD decline may find it difficult to push through the 0.90 support level which has held so far. The CPI risks are slightly asymmetric for the AUD, given the pricing for an RBA easing. A higher than expected outcome may see further AUD shorts to be unwound.” As the speculators are short on Aussie, “there is more near-term upside risk to AUD/USD than downside. Resistance is at 0.9350. International risks include further negative news on China and changing expectations for Fed QE tapering.”