Forex trading plan for March 6
On Friday the main event of the day will surely be the release of the US labor market data at 13:30 GMT. According to the consensus forecast, US Non-Farm Payrolls have increased in Feb. by 240K after gaining 257K in Jan. American unemployment rate is seen declining from 5.7% to 5.6%. The average hourly earnings’ growth is expected to slow down. NFP above 200K will confirm expectations of the Fed’s hike this summer and will be positive for USD.
EUR/USD remains to be sold. The bearish trend reinforced when the pair broke below the recent lows. Resistance is at 1.1100, 1.1150 and 1.1215. Thebearswillremaininchargebelow1.1260. Support is at 1.1000 and 1.0950. The ECB’s President Mario Draghi has announced that the quantitative easing program (QE) will start on Monday, March 9. Although much of QE is already priced in EUR/USD and Draghi pointed out that the euro zone’s economy improved a bit, divergence between the ECB’s and the Fed’s monetary policies keeps the euro under pressure. In the first half of the day EUR/USD will likely be consolidating ahead of NFP.
The bulls were eager to buy USD/JPY. There’s still resistance in the 120.25/50 and then 120.80 areas to overcome, but the move up towards 124.00 is approaching. Support is at 118.85/70. Japanese authorities could try to discourage the buyers around 121.00, but is the USD rally is broad, the pair will continue going up. So, it all depends on the US data.
GBP/USD in on the downside and may test support at 1.5190/80. Failure to hold there will provoke decline to 1.5080. Resistance is in the1.5300/25 area. AUD/USD lacks strength to break above 0.7850. Support lies at 0.7720.