Forex trading plan for March 20

Elizaveta Belugina

EUR/USD spiked to the downtrend resistance line connecting December highs and levels at the end of February in the area of 1.1045, but failed to sustain the advance. Retest of 1.0500 now looks quite likely. The market’s still bearish on the euro, but in the coming sessions volatility is going to be high, and we may see some attempts to bring the single currency higher, at better levels for selling. Traders are still digesting the results of the Federal Reserve’s meeting and may remain indecisive for some time. Resistance area is at 1.0950/1.1000. Friday will be the second day of the EU economic summit, but no important decisions are expected: the Greek problem will take more time to solve.

GBP/USD has made a very volatile move to 1.5160 (bottom of the daily Cloud, 50% Fibo). The following selloff halted around 1.4800 and now the pair is consolidating in the 1.4900 zone. Britain will release public sector net borrowing at 09:30 GMT, forecast is negative. Yield spread continues to favor the USD and British labor data this week disappointed. The pair’s vulnerable for decline to 1.4720/00.

USD/JPY has touched 119.30 before recovering to 120.80. The Bank of Japan’s meeting minutes will be released early on Friday. This won’t be much of the news because the meeting in question was more than a month ago. The bulls will face resistance at 121.30 and then at 122.00.

AUD/USD spiked up, but failed to close above 0.7800 on Wednesday. There’s a band of resistance in the 0.7850/0.7900 area. Support is at 0.7650 and 0.7560; the bearish daily Ichimoku Cloud is still rather thick. Reserve Bank of Australia’s Governor Glenn Stevens will speak during Friday’s Asian session. This week we’ve learned that the RBA has become more dovish at its last meeting, and Stevens may provide some confirmation of this idea.

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