Forex trading plan for Mar. 24
US dollar opened the week under moderate bearish pressure following the last week's sharp selloff. On the past week USD index formed a strong bearish candle, but failed to form a "bearish engulfing". It confirms that the current USD decline is temporary. This week the market attention will be focused on the US inflation data on Tuesday (12:30 GMT). CPI is expected to come at 0.1% in February - better than in January, but not enough to inspire a fresh USD rally.
EUR/USD recovered above 1.0900 on Monday. Markets await a bunch of PMI indices to be released on Tuesday. The figures are expected to confirm increased optimism due to QE launch in March. If it happens, we'll see EUR/USD recovered up to 1.1500 in the coming days. GBP/USD spent the past week in an extened 1.4635/1.5160 range. Fed and BOE behaved in a similar way, pointing to increased economic risks and delaying rate hike expectations. However, the Fed is still expected to become the first one to raise rates. UK is also expected to release inflation figures tomorrow. Cable clearly remains offered below 1.5000. Break below 1.4800 would increased the pace of sales.
USD/JPY formed a bearish engulfing candle on the past week, descending from 122.00 yen. We turned bearish for the pair following the Fed's meeting. Daily close below 119.80 would trigger a decline to 118.00. AUD/USD and NZD/USD have also gapped higher on Monday. Watch China's HSBC manufacturing PMI tonight - reading above 50 will push the commodity currencies higher from the current levels.