Forex trading plan for Mar. 26
US Dollar index remains under pressure in the middle of the week, but holds above the Tuesday’s low. Watch the Fed’s member Dennis Lockhart speech on Thursday. In early March he made some hawkish comments. Also watch US unemployment claims on Thursday. Markets await the Friday’s final Q4 GDP – figures are expected to be revised up. That could revive USD demand on the market.
Meanwhile, EUR/USD is flirting with the 1.1000 hurdle, trying to fix above the 4-month trend resistance. Market sentiment towards the euro remains quite positive amid better-than-expected figures we’ve seen this week (PMIs, German business climate). On Thursday watch the German consumer sentiment index by Gfk – more positive news could follow. Next bullish target - 1.1100. Break higher would open the way to a stronger resistance at 1.1500.
GBP/USD is struggling to recover above 1.4900. Market volatility remains high. Next resistance - 1.4950. Anyway, we remain bearish below the 1.5000 handle. On Thursday don’t miss UK retail sales at 9:30 GMT (forecast – upbeat). US will also release BOE Financial stability report tomorrow.
AUD/USD bulls weakened on Wednesday: the pair rolled back below 0.7900. A daily fix above 0.7915 could become a strong bullish signal, while a decisive pullback – a bearish one. We’re waiting for clear signals.
USD/JPY still holds above the 100-day MA at 119.20 as we write. We target 118 yen in the coming sessions. Japan will release a bunch of data on Friday night – don’t miss CPI and retail sales.