USD/JPY will remain under pressure
During the past week yen was in demand as a safe haven currency. Although next week tensions may produce less reaction of the market, global growth concerns can make traders keep buying Japanese currency. In addition, don’t forget the repatriation flows of Japanese companies’ income back to the yen with will support this currency in the first half of the week.
At the same time, data released in Japan showed that without the effect of a sales-tax increase last April Japanese core inflation – the Bank of Japan’s key measure – was zero. Although Japanese central bank has stressed it will look through the effect of slumping oil prices, the soft data will keep it under pressure to expand stimulus to achieve the 2% inflation target. Still, though unexpected the inflation release isn’t regarded as a sign that the Bank of Japan will add monetary stimulus at the coming meetings and this may be another reason to expect that USD/JPY will lack bullish momentum.
The bias of the pair next week will also depend on the attitude to the US dollar and American economic statistics. In Japan there will be some data releases, but of medium importance.
USD/JPY spiked down as low as to 118.30. The pair managed to get some support from the 100-day MA at 118.78. However, there are many bearish developments at the chart. It looks like the recovery, if it happens, will be limited by 120.00/50. Below 118.33 support will be in the 117.30/00 area.