Forex trading plan for Mar. 31
The US dollar is gaining ground at the beginning of the week, inspired by Yellen’s speech on Friday. The major event of the week – NFP – comes on Friday. In the coming days we’ll see a bunch of other important figures: Chicago PMI and consumer confidence data on Tuesday and manufacturing PMI and ADP NFP on Wednesday. All the forecasts are upbeat.
EUR/USD dipped below 1.0900 despite upbeat euro zone’s figures. Markets await news from Greece to come this week – the country is running out of cash again. European creditors have to approve the new funding tranche. Tomorrow watch euro zone’s preliminary CPI for March and the unemployment data. Break below 1.0800 would open the way down to 1.0600. Quick progress in a Greek deal could open the way to the 1.1000 resistance, but growth in EUR/USD is unlikely to be resilient.
GBP/USD pulled below 1.4800. Daily close below would be a strong selling signal. Next support - 1.4770 and 1.4700. We remain bearish below 1.5000. Tomorrow watch the current account data and the final Q4 GDP.
USD/JPY pushed higher, testing the 120 yen mark. The 55-day MA acted as a support (119.10). Recovery above 120.40 would be a good buying signal.
Commodity currencies also remain under pressure. AUD/USD extended the decline from 0.7940, hitting 0.7650 on Monday. Fix below 0.7640 would pave the ground to 0.7550 (recent lows).