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Currency Analyst since 2010

Forex trading plan for April 1

Elizaveta Belugina

EUR/USD slid below the Ichimoku Cloud and the 100-period MA on H4. The pair has found some support above 1.0700, but a decline to 1.0690 and 1.0600 looks very likely. The close below 1.0755 (50% Fibo retracement of the March correction up) will be a negative signal. Further resistance is at 1.0800 and 1.0845 with the key level at 1.0950. On Tuesday there were some positive data from the euro area, especially Germany. However, we stick to the approach of selling the euro on its attempts to recover. On Wednesday Greek and other euro zone officials from the Euro Working Group are supposed to meet to discuss the proposed reforms. As it seems that the parties are still far from the compromise, there may be some negative impact on the euro. Later in the day the US will release ADP employment report (12:15 GMT) & ISM manufacturing PMI (14:00 GMT). EUR/JPY also looks weak.

GBP/USD was under negative pressure, but found some support at 1.4750 as the UK Q4 GDP was revised a bit to the upside. Pound rose versus euro, and that helped. But EUR/GBP found some support at 0.7240. There are some indications that the pair is trying to base, but the pound looks shaky, the bulls lack strength, and we can’t rule out the decline to 1.4700. A rather strong downtrend resistance is at 1.4900. The dynamics in the coming sessions will be data-dependant. Britain will release manufacturing PMI (08:30 GMT). Also note that British pound remain under pressure ahead of the UK parliamentary election on May 7 and amid the polls showing that no party will be able to form the government on its own.

USD/JPY had an active rebound on Monday, but found resistance in the 120.00/50 area. Japan will release Tankan manufacturing & services indexes early on Wednesday, and the expectations are quite positive. The pair may spend time in the 120.50/119.00 range. Support is at 119.55. The next resistance is at 120.80 and 121.20.

On Wednesday the Asian session will be rich with economic data. Don’t miss Australian building permits (00:30 GMT) & China’s manufacturing PMI (01:00 GMT). AUD/USD slid to 0.7590. Australian currency continues to look quite weak targeting 0.7500 and lower. Resistance has moved from 0.7760 to 0.7700. Traders continue to expect the RBA to cut the interest rate soon, and this clearly undermines Aussie.

EUR
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