Trader, analyst and instructor with a 6-year experience

Forex trading plan for Apr. 2

The US dollar slowed its ascent on Wednesday following the release of the lower-than-expected employment indicator by ADP. The report showed the US private sector created only 189K new jobs in March. Markets are now concerned that the official NFP on Friday will also reflect the labor market slack (forecast: down from +295K to 247K). ISM Manufacturing PMI also surprised to the downside. You should also watch the US trade balance and weekly unemployment claims on Thursday to get more signals about the US economy. US dollar is expected to stay out of demand at least till the end of the week.

The other currency pairs are seen tracking the USD sentiment these days. EUR/USD recovered from 1.0720 on Wednesday, but the 1.0800 area is a strong resistance for now. Next resistance lies at 1.1000/50, while support - at 1.0600. The ECB will release its monetary policy minutes tomorrow.

GBP/USD remains under pressure below the 1.4800 mark. We remain bearish below 1.5000. Next bearish targets are 1.4740 and 1.4630. Watch the UK Construction PMI on Thursday. 

AUD/USD slowed the decline on Wednesday, finding daily support around 0.7580. China’s manufacturing PMI surprised to the upside on Wednesday. Australia itself is scheduled to release its trade balance on Thursday - trade gap is expected to have widened in February.

USD/JPY pulled down from the 120.40 area on the overall USD weakness. Buyers’ indecisiveness reopens the way towards the 118 yen support. 

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