Forex trading plan for April 3
The markets are awaiting the long Easter weekend and the release of the US NFP on Friday. Taking into account uncertainty and low liquidity trading will be even more volatile than it usually is on NFP Fridays. Before the release (12:30 GMT) US dollar is expected to consolidate.
On Wednesday American ADP employment report disappointed dollar bulls, but on Thursday the US released good unemployment claims data (lower than expected) and trade balance figures. All in all, the recent US data releases give some reasons to worry about the US economy. A reading above 200K and gain in average hourly earnings should be enough for the market to expect a rate hike in June-September.
EUR/USD has found support above 1.0700 this week and returned above 1.0850 on the back of some more positive data from the euro area. Support is at 1.0800, 1.0750 and 1.0700.
GBP/USD was affected by weak UK construction PMI which fell from 60.1 to 57.8. Resistance at 1.4900 still holds. Next resistance is at 1.4950. Taking into account Britain’s political uncertainty, even in case weaker NFP pound’s recovery will be limited by 1.5000. On the downside potential target will be at 1.4630.
USD/JPY was rejected from above 120.00 in the first half of the week and spent Thursday below this mark. This makes the pair vulnerable to test support is 119.28, 118.85 and 118.30. Resistance is at 120.30, 120.50 and 120.80.
AUD/USD is weak. Resistance at 0.7660 has become stronger with the spike to this level on Wednesday followed by a decline to the 0.7530 area. Australian trade deficit widened and 17 out of the 27 economists surveyed by Bloomberg expect the RBA to cut the benchmark rate on Tuesday.