Forex trading plan for April 14

  Kira Iukhtenko

Demand on the US dollar keeps on rising on Monday with the DXY index approaching the 100 points figure. Poor China’s trade figures pulled the investors back from the commodity currencies into the safe USD – even despite the remaining uncertainty about the Fed’s rate hike terms. On Tuesday the market will focus on the retail sales data and the producer price index (12:30 GMT). Upbeat forecasts create room for a broader USD strength: all the indicators promise to have snapped out of the red zone in March.

EUR/USD remains under pressure for a 6th consecutive day in a row. Euro zone’s economic calendar on Tuesday is light, while on Wednesday we’ll watch the ECB meeting and press-conference. No changes in policy are expected, but it is curious to know how Mr. Draghi appraises the current QE effect. Greek question will remain unanswered at least until April 24. Next bearish target for EUR/USD lies at 1.0460, while the upside will likely stay limited by the 1.0700 mark in the current fundamental environment.

GBP/USD hit a fresh 5-year low of 1.4565 on Monday, testing the waters below the March minimums (1.4630). The market will be watching the UK inflation data tomorrow: according to the consensus, CPI stayed flat in March, supporting the deflationary concerns. We review the cable’s prospects as bearish with the May 7 election risk being a kettle bell. Daily close below 1.4630 would pave the ground to 1.4220 in the coming weeks.

Commodity currencies are expected to stay under pressure ahead of the China GDP release on Wednesday. According to forecasts, growth slowed from 7.3% to 7.0% in Q1. AUD/USD is trading on a brink of a precipice, tickling the 0.7550 support on Monday. Get ready to sell Aussie on a daily close below this level. 

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