Forex trading plan for April 17
US dollar index keeps on falling for a third day in a row. US economic data keeps on disappointing the market: on Thursday we’ve seen weak housing market figures. On Friday the market will focus on March CPI (April: +0.2%).
EUR/USD recovered to 1.0770, regaining almost 50% Fibonacci retracement from the early-April downtrend. Growth remains limited by the 1.1050 mark: Greek default fears keep on weighing the sentiment. Greece will have to pay more than 1 billion euros to IMF in early-May. We will see, is the euro strong enough to close above 1.0700 today. Watch the final euro zone’s CPI on Friday (no revision expected). Mario Draghi will speak to IMF on Saturday.
GBP/USD pushed to 1.4940, but stays below the major resistance at 1.5000. We’ll watch the UK labor data tomorrow. Jobless rate is expected to have lowered to 5.6%. Political risk for the pound will increase closer to May 7 election, so be ready to sell the cable higher.
AUD/USD jumped to 0.7800. Aside from the weak USD, Aussie was supported by upbeat Australia’s labor market data. Jobless rate declined to 6.1%, while employment increased above forecast. However, note that AUD/USD is forming trend continuation pattern these days. Watch the 0.7915/30 resistance area.
USD/CAD – “la vedette” of the past few days. The pair plummeted to 1.2250 as the BOC promised not to cut rates. Watch a bunch of Canadian data on Friday (13:30 GMT). Forecasts are mostly upbeat. Yesterday’s drop below the 1.2350mark was a strong bearish signal for the market. Next support – 1.2180 (bottom of the daily Cloud). USD/JPY consolidates around the 119.00 mark. USD bears are much less aggressive here.