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Currency Analyst since 2010

Forex trading plan for April 21

US dollar weakened last week on the stream of weaker-than-expected data releases in the US. On Friday, however, bright consumer sentiment provided the greenback some support. As a result, it reached technical support versus some of the major currencies and may strengthen a bit. Still, we don’t speak about the uptrend resumption in USD – for this we need more positive statistics. This week watch US unemployment claims on Thursday and durable goods on Friday.

EUR/USD met resistance in the 1.0850 area on Friday and fell approaching 1.0700 on Monday. The pair retraced 61.8% of the decline from April 6 to April 13. Big declines in the euro have paused, but the single currency is still affected by the Greek question: according to the comments of the officials, the nation remains far from the compromise with its creditors. The pair will trade in consolidative fashion until the Eurogroup’s meeting on Friday. Support is at 1.0700 and 1.0650/40. Resistance is at 1.0850 and 1.0920. On Tuesday Germany and the euro area will release economic sentiment data at 09:00 GMT, forecasts are optimistic.

GBP/USD spiked up to 1.5050 on Friday forming a shooting star candle on the daily chart. Next resistance is at 1.5163. On the downside pound may test 1.4800. Next support is at 1.4740. The approaching elections remain the negative factor for the cable. Next important event for the pair is release of the Bank of England’s meeting minutes on Wednesday. No votes for a rate hike in the UK are expected.

USD/JPY broke below important technical levels last week, but found some support in the 118.50 area. Next support levels lie at 118.30 and 115.00. Resistance is at 119.30 and 119.70.

AUD/USD remains near the highest levels since the end of March as Australia released last week some better-than-expected employment data and China reduced reserve requirement ratio on Sunday in an effort to boost lending and economic growth. Support is at 0.7730 and 0.7695. The RBA will release monetary policy meeting minutes at 01:30 GMT.

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