Currency Analyst since 2010

USD/JPY: bullish views (ANZ, SEB)

ANZ:  “The 96.75-97.25 area should be seen as a buying opportunity, with stops below 95.50, on the basis that a secondary rebound should develop to retest 101.50 if not a measured move towards 105.00. However, this could still be part of a broad consolidation of the strong gains seen since Q2’12 rather than a resumption of the rally. The bias after such a strong rally (as in the rally from 77-103) is for a swift return to that uptrend. However, the more likely scenario is that a broader consolidation pattern develops before the uptrend can resume. In that context, the current price action is likely to be forming a consolidation pattern in which the near term bias is for a redefining of the recent (103.75) high. Longer-term, pullbacks should still be seen as a buying opportunity.”

SEB: “The decline to 95.81 is clearly close enough (to the ideal triangle target of 95.41) to consider a possible completed C wave. To add confidence for a D-wave in progress (heading for 100.30) we basically need to move and close above 97.08. Some other yen crosses such as AUD/JPY also looks prone to a move higher (93?).”

Chart. Daily USD/JPY

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