Forex trading plan for April 29
Wednesday will be an intense day: markets will likely be consolidative ahead of the US releases which will create strong volatility during the American session. The US will release Q1 GDP at 12:30 GMT (forecast: +1.0%), and the Federal Reserve will publish its statement at 18:00 GMT. As the prospects of the US currency look very uncertain, other currencies feel rather well versus the greenback. We don’t expect major changes in the Fed’s policy and think that the impact on the US dollar will be moderately negative.
EUR/USD has reached 1.0950. The pair was also driven by some hopes for a closer deal between Greece and its creditors as the Greek negotiating team was reshuffled so that the influence of an aggressive finance minister Yanis Varoufakis has diminished. The pair is trying to overcome the 55-day MA at 1.0930. Daily close above this level will be a bullish signal. Support is at 1.0850 and 1.0786. Resistance is at 1.0995, 1.1050 and 1.1166 (top of the daily Ichimoku).
GBP/USD has reached 1.5300 despite the fact that British data showed weaker-than-expected GDP growth in Q1 (only 0.3% vs. 0.6% in the previous quarter). Support is at 1.5177 (100-day MA) and 1.5100. Resistance is at 1.5350 ahead of 1.5500. It seems that the pound has some upside potential before the reversal down.
USD/JPY is little changed below 119.25 (55-day MA) and above Monday’s low at 118.77. As long as the pair remains above 118.30, the outlook remains bullish warranting an increase to resistance at 119.70. Still, it may be difficult for the US dollar to hold ground if American GDP disappoints. There’s no further support until 117.20.
AUD/USD reached 0.7970 making a break though to the upside. A close above here will strengthen the case for the advance to 0.8030 and then to 0.8250. NZD/USD returned to 0.7700. Traders await the meeting of the Reserve Bank of New Zealand at 21:00 GMT on Wednesday. If the RBNZ keeps rates on hold, as we expect, the pair may rise to 0.7800. There will be an obstacle at 0.7740.