US dollar awaits GDP and the Fed

US are scheduled to release their advance Q1 GDP at 12:30 GMT today. Acoording to the consensus forecast, the US economy added only 1% over this period - this is more than two times less than in Q4. Weak data can be partly explained by an extremly cold weather and an expensive US currency. Later in the day the Fed will announce its monetary polcy deciosn (18:00 GMT). There will be no press-conference and no economic projection release this time. That's why most economists expect the meeting to be a non-event. 

According to analysts at JP Morgan, the most important thing is the Fed’s view on the US economy: although the statement will mention the Q1 slowdown, it will be discounted due to transitory factors. The statement should repeat that an interest rate hike will be data dependent. The scenario of the first increase in rates in June will be discounted by the market, but the specialists still expect action later this year. UBS and BNP Paribas share the view.

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