Forex trading plan for May 6
Market players expect improvement in the US labor market data due on Wednesday and Friday. This should keep the greenback supported, though to see big moves up of the American currency we’ll still need to see more positive news from the United States. Note that if NFP (Non-Farm Payrolls) disappoint on Friday, the US dollar will resume declining as the market would see bad data as the sign that weak economic effects are less transitory than the Fed said at its meeting last week. In addition, on Wednesday don’t miss the speech of the Fed’s Chair Janet Yellen at 13:15 GMT.
EUR/USD retraced 38.2% of the December/March decline and met resistance at the 100-day MA just below 1.13. The pair finds support at the daily Ichimoku Cloud at 1.1066. Nearby there’s also support of March/April highs in the 1.1050/35 zone.
GBP/USD is trading just above 1.5100 supported by the daily Ichimoku Cloud (1.5093) and 55-day MA (1.5045). Next support is at 1.4970. The upside will remain limited ahead of the UK election on Thursday. Resistance is at 1.5155 (100-day MA). Britain’s construction P<I on Tuesday was weaker than expected. On Wednesday watch UK services PMI.
USD/JPY returned above the 55-day MA and the psychological level of 120.00 as well as above the resistance line connecting March and April highs. This makes the bulls stronger. Resistance is at 120.84 ahead of 121.50. Support is at 119.80 and 119.30.
AUD/USD rose to 0.7918 as traders covered short positions after the Reserve Bank of Australia cut its benchmark interest rate to the record low of 2%. Aussie faces resistance provided by the top of the daily Ichimoku Cloud (0.7910). Next resistance is at 0.7950/75. Australia will release retail sales data on Wednesday.