Currency Analyst since 2010

AUD/USD: daily update

AUD/USD formed a bullish flag on H4. The pair has potential to rise to $0.9200/20. On the upside Aussie will meet further resistance at $0.9245 (55-day MA) and $0.9260 (the bottom of the daily Ichimoku Cloud). We expect this resistance to stand at least the initial test.

Market players will be watching data from the US due today and tomorrow. On Australia’s side there will be only a speech from the RBA Assistant Governor Debelle (01:30 GMT on Friday).

The general downtrend is still in place. Aussie is oversold in the near term, so negative news from America is able to make it push higher. In this case the level $0.9317 looks attainable. However, Credit Suisse points out that there’s AUD/USD tends to lag large moves in open interest, so although the market’s already very short on Australian dollar, it’s still under heavy pressure.

Support is at $0.9140, $0.9082, $0.9035, $0.9005 and $0.8920. There’s a 100-month MA at $0.8880.   

Westpac says AUD/USD should extend recent gains to the 0$.9300/50 region into late August. “Further out however, Australia’s very sluggish economy should keep a lid on Australian yields and AUD, though $0.8850 is likely to hold multi-week.”

Chart. Daily AUD/USD

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