US dollar: weekly prospects
The currency market remains driven by the Fed’s rate hike expectations: last week’s data disappointed, pulling the US dollar down. April retail sales data came out flat, while the PPI index fell by 0.4%. We see that the economy remains weak at the beginning of the second quarter. As a result, rate hike expectations switched to the end of the year 2015.
On the new week, the market will be waiting for the FOMC meeting minutes on Wednesday. You should also pay attention to the Philly Fed Manufacturing Index and April consumer price index later in the week. Inflation expectations driven by higher energy prices are now at their highest level since October, so the US currency could get some support from this angle.