Forex trading plan for June 5
The event risk in the coming sessions is extremely high. On Friday OPEC is due to announce the results of its meeting; Greece should pay 300 million euros to the IMF, while the US will release the key indicator of the labor market – Non Farm Payrolls – at 12:30 GMT. According to the consensus forecast, NFP increased by 226K in May.
EUR/USD reached 1.1385 driven by growth in German yields, but then returned to 1.1300 on better-than-expected data from the US released on Thursday (American unemployment claims declined). Traders are taking profits ahead of the US NFP release on Friday. We’ll surely see more volatility on Friday. The pair will follow the negative scenario (down to support at 1.1150, 1.1075 and 1.0975) if there’s no deal on Greece on Friday and the nation puts off paying to the IMF to the end of the month and if there’s a big upside surprise in the US NFP). If a temporary solution of Greek problem is found and NFP disappoints, EUR/USD may be able to rise to 1.1465, 1.1530 and 1.1600.
GBP/USD tested 1.5440. The Bank of England left its policy unchanged: the decision didn’t influence the pound much. Higher German yields are positive for GBP as well. Resistance is at 1.5445, 1.5500 and 1.5530 (200-day MA). Support is at 1.5300, 1.5250 and 1.5170 (daily MAs).
USD/JPY is fluctuating around 124.25. So far Japanese officials have done little to talk the pair down. There no bullish drivers for the pair from the side of Japan, but good figures from the US can push the dollar higher. Support is at 123.60/50, 123.30 and 122.70. Resistance is at 124.70, 125.05 and 125.70.
AUD/USD slid to 0.7725 after meeting resistance above 0.7800. Aussie bulls were discouraged by another dismal Australian data release. Resistance is at 0.7800 and 0.7850. Support is at 0.7600 and 0.7550. Selling the rallies looks like the best strategy.