EUR/USD: forecast for June 15-21
EUR/USD wasn’t able to overcome resistance in the 1.1400 area. The bulls were held back by the uncertainty about Greece and good data from the US.
The ECB President Mario Draghi will testify before the European Parliament on Monday. We can expect questions on the price and financial stability in the euro area. Important comments from Draghi that can move the market are very likely.
On Tuesday the European Court of Justice is due to announce a ruling regarding the constitutionality of the ECB’s Outright Monetary Transactions policy (OMT). The program itself has never been used, though remains in the ECB’s toolkit and allows the central bank to buy the euro area’s government bonds on the secondary market under certain conditions. The program is important for the well-being of the currency union.
The Greek question remains unresolved. The meetings of the European finance ministers on Thursday and Friday will be the key for finding a solution. The nation is running out of time as it needs to secure a bailout from its creditors by the end of June or it will default on its debt to the IMF.
EUR/USD is consolidating ahead of the big moves expected next week on the Federal Reserve’s meeting and the news from Greece. In our view, the euro is to be sold either on rally in case of the Greek relief or on the break of support. Resistance is at 1.1400, 1.1465, 1.1530, 1.1600 and 1.1745 (200-day MA) as the upper limit. Support is at 1.0950, 1.0825 and 1.0700.