Currency Analyst since 2010

Forex trading plan for July 3

US labor market data disappointed those who wanted to price in more of the potential Federal Reserve rate hike. Non-farm payrolls 223K (forecast: +231K). The previous reading was revised down from 280K to 254K. Unemployment rate declined more than expected, but wage growth stagnated that makes the Fed’s policy tightening difficult. On Friday US banks will be closed in observance of the Independence Day. Lower amount of liquidity will make trading more volatile.

Weaker US figures helped to keep EUR/USD above the 100-day MA in the 1.1040 area. Resistance is at 1.1136 and 1.1200. According to the opinion polls, most Greeks prepare to say ‘No’ to the austerity measures on the referendum this Sunday (about 40% compared to 37% for ‘Yes’). Note, though that since Greek banks were closed for emergency holidays the number of those who supports the position of Alexis Tsipras’ government has declined (from 57% for ‘No’ vote). The ECB President Mario Draghi may offer clues on how Greece affects QE as he speaks at 15:10 GMT on Thursday.

GBP/USD has support at 1.5550. Resistance is at 1.5685 and 1.5735. The UK will release services PMI at 08:30 GMT. USD/JPY recoiled down from June resistance line in the 123.70 area and will likely return to 122.50.

AUD/USD once again found support just below 0.7600. Resistance is at 0.7650 and 0.7700. Australia will release retail sales at 01:30 GMT (forecast +0.5% vs. previous reading of 0.0%).

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