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US Dollar: forecast for Jul 27 - Aug 2

Kira Iukhtenko

US Dollar attempted to overcome the 98 resistance, but was dragged lower by the mixed corporate earnings. US exporters suffered from the expensive currency and weak demand from overseas. However, on Thursday the market was cheered up by the jobless claims – the indicator unexpectedly fell to a 40-year low, confirming the economic recovery.

On the new week, we’ll focus on the Federal Reserve meeting on Wednesday. No rate hike is expected, but the market will be tracking the monetary policy statement’s tone. Futures market is currently pricing in a 19% chance of a hike in September and a 56% chance of a hike in December. Any hawkish hints will push the currency to the upside.

Thursday will become another important day for the greenback – Q2 GDP is on the schedule. According to the official forecast, the US economy rose by 2.5% q/q from April to June, while analysts at Barclays forecast a more than 3% growth. This is going to be a huge progress after a 0.2% dip in Q1. 

Sourece: Trading Economics

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