Currency Analyst since 2010

USD/JPY: outlook for August 10-16

By Elizabeth Belugina

The Bank of Japan kept monetary policy steady and maintained its upbeat assessment of the economy on Friday, signaling its conviction that inflation will hit its 2% target without additional monetary stimulus.

Yet, the nation will release Q2 GDP on August 17, and according to the forecasts, the world’s third biggest economy contracted from April to June. Such prediction together with fears about Chinese economic slowdown will keep alive the expectations of more easing from Japanese central bank later this year.

Next week Japan will release current account, the BOJ monthly report and consumer confidence on Monday, central bank’s meeting minutes on Wednesday and core machinery orders on Thursday.  

The pair once again reached psychologically important mark of 125.00, but there was no breakthrough yet. Traders probably took profit thinking that the US dollar is too overbought. Still, dollar’s decline is a good opportunity to find a good level for longs. Support is at 124.00, 123.50 and 123.00. Taking into account smaller importance of US statistics due in the coming week, one can’t guarantee that the break to the upside will happen during the next several days.  

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