Currency Analyst since 2010

Forex trading plan for September 4

By Elizabeth Belugina

On Friday, traders will be focused on the release of the US nonfarm payrolls data (NFP) at 12:30 GMT as it’s the key publication ahead of the Federal Reserve’s September 17 meeting. This publication will determine dollar’s dynamics in all major pairs. According to the forecast, American economy added 217K jobs in August. As there have been many concerns about China so far, a reading above 200K is needed to keep the greenback from declining. A reading above 220K will make the greenback strengthen – the bigger the figure is, the higher USD will get. A reading between 200K and 220K may cause some volatility, but won’t clarity the Fed’s position. Ahead of the release trading should be quiet and in narrow ranges as many players will avoid new positions.

EUR/USD fell on Thursday because of the dovish comments of the European Central Bank. The ECB lowered inflation and growth forecasts and increased issue share limit: the central bank may now hold 33% of a bond issue vs. 25% earlier. The pair met support of the 100-day MA in the 1.1100 area.

GBP/USD continues declining hitting the next target at 1.5245 (50% of the April-June advance). Further support is at 1.5200 and 1.5170/50. Resistance is at 1.5330, 1.5360 and 1.5400.

USD/JPY is facing resistance of the 50% Fibo of the August decline and 200-day MA (120.70/77). It seems like the pair’s under bearish pressure below this area. Further resistance is in the 121.70 zone. Support is at 119.60 and 119.30.   

AUD/USD is trying to hold above the psychological level of 0.7000. After weak GDP came weak retail sales. The pair is oversold and there is bullish divergence on H4. Still, no big moves are expected until the NFP release. Resistance is at 0.7060, 0.7100 and 0.7128. Support is at 0.6950 and 0.6900.   

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