Forex trading plan for September 8
By Elizabeth Belugina
Early on Tuesday China will release August trade balance data, and we’ll find out whether weaker yuan has managed to improve the nation's exports. There’s no specific time of the release, so beware of increased volatility during the Asian session. Another important release in the morning will be Australian NAB business confidence index due at 01:30 GMT. AUD/USD touched levels below 0.6900 on Monday. Support is at 0.6900, 0.6855 (April 2009 low) and 0.6800. Resistance is at 0.7000, 0.7065 and 0.7100.
US labor market data released on Friday keeps the door open for the Federal Reserve’s rate hike on September 17. Still, there are plenty of risks for American economy and market can only guess what the Fed decides. There are no important releases scheduled on Tuesday in Europe and the Unites States, so traders will continue analyzing monetary policy outlook for the Fed and the ECB. This should keep EUR/USD capped by 1.1270/1300. In the past session, the pair found some support in the 1.1090/1.1120 area. The euro’s ability to stay above this area will depend on figures from China: improvement in data may get the single currency down. Next support is at 1.1015/00.
GBP/USD found support in the 1.5170 zone and recovered towards 1.5280 without distinctive fundamental drivers. Daily сlose above 1.5272 will open the way to 1.5330/55 (200-day MA) area which should provide resistance. On the downside, support lies at 1.5164 (Friday low) and 1.5088 (May lows).
USD/JPY has resistance at 119.60 and 120.70. Below this last level, the pair will stay in short-term downtrend. On the downside, we focus on 118.60 and 118.30. Dynamics in the coming session will depend on the market’s risk sentiment and, consequently, Chinese statistics. In addition, watch the release of Japanese current account data early on Tuesday. The higher the surplus, the more negative it will be for USD/JPY.