Forex trading plan for September 16

By Elizabeth Belugina

Data released in the United States on Tuesday showed that US retail sales growth has slowed down in August, but the previous figures for July were revised to the upside. Overall, the report provides positive view of the US economy, though it doesn’t offer new hints about whether the Federal Reserve will raise interest rates on Thursday. On Wednesday, pay attention to the US inflation release at 12:30 GMT. In general, volatility should be high ahead of the Fed’s meeting, and many traders will be widely withdrawing their USD exposure. This will create moderate negative pressure on the greenback.

EUR/USD edged down to the 1.1300 area after spiking to 1.1372 on Monday. German and the euro area’s ZEW economic sentiment indexes significantly declined. Support is at 1.1280, 1.1240 and 1.1150. Resistance is at 1.1375 and 1.1436/66.

GBP/USD is fluctuating around 1.5400. The UK will release employment data at 08:30 GMT, forecasts are quite positive. The main support is at 1.5350 (200-day MA) – as long as the pound stays above this line, the bears won’t be able to return to power. Above this line British currency retains growth potential. If UK data don’t disappoint, the pair will be able to rise to 1.5450 and 1.5520 (100- and 55-day MAs).

USD/JPY continued its descent. The Bank of Japan left monetary policy unchanged. Governor Kuroda sounded rather optimistic on the nation’s economic prospects, though many traders thought that the regulator would at least think about expanding monetary stimulus.  

AUD/USD met resistance in the 0.7165 area (trend line resistance). Chinese stocks decline. The minutes of the Reserve Bank’s of Australia meeting offered no surprises. Support is at 0.7050 and 0.9600. Further resistance is at 0.7200. 

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