Currency Analyst since 2010

Commerzbank: outlook for majors

EUR/USD: Initial support is the $1.3453 (August high) and $1.3373 (accelerated uptrend) – only a close below here would alleviate immediate upside pressure and signal a slide back to the $1.3241/1.3163 55 and 200-day MA. An attempt to rise to $1.3711 should not be ruled out.

GBP/USD: Massive acceleration places the 2009-2013 downtrend resistance at $1.6333 in the spotlight. Despite the directional move seen yesterday we continue to look for this to hold the topside. Support is offered by 1.6000 and $1.5918 (accelerated uptrend) – while above here the market remains immediately bid. Only below here will allow for a slide back to the $1.5653 (3-month uptrend).

USD/CHF: We would need to see a rapid bounce back above the 0.9146 August low just to alleviate immediate downside pressure and signal a return to 0.9261 (23.6% retracement of the move down from July). Failure to hold over 0.9090 will see USD/CHF sell off to the 0.9023 (2013 low) and then to 0.8931 (2012 low).

USD/JPY: Our view remains neutral to positive. Last week the market stalled at 100.62 and is seeing a minor correction lower. We have minor support at 98.25. The upside bias remains above the 97.26 support line, but ideally we should now see dips hold the cloud support at 98.27/97.64. Our initial upside target is the 101.54/60 (July high and the Fibonacci retracement), with a long term Fibonacci retracement offering a 105.48 resistance point above here. Below 97.26 we would revert to neutral as the risk will increase of further slippage to the 200-day MA at 95.65.

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