US Dollar: forecast for October 19-25
New week on the financial markets started with a bunch of Chinese releases. China’s economy rose more than expected in Q3, lowering uncertainty and leaving space for a Fed’s rate hike in 2015.
In our view view, the US dollar has room for recovery on the new week. Unexpectedly strong CPI released last week, upbeat quarterly corporate reports, improvement of the global sentiment – all that supports the ide of a rate hike in December. For now, the chance for that is around 30%. You should also note that the net USD longs decline to a 15-months low. The correction was deep enough no mitigate the oversold conditions for the greenback.
US economic calendar on the new week is rather light. The only events to watch are the housing market news on Tuesday. The Fed’s officials will deliver their last speeches before the October 28th meeting during the week. Yanet Yellen is scheduled to speak on Tuesday.