EUR/USD: forecast for October 19-25
In line with our expectations, the euro continued going up after it had broken above August-September resistance line. The European currency was supported by the market’s negative risk sentiment and weaker-than-expected US economic data. However, EUR/USD failed to overcome resistance in the 1.1500 area and went abruptly down on the dovish comments of the ECB Governing Council member Nowotny.
The first half of the next week will be relatively light on economic data from both Europe and the United States. All in all, the focus will be on the euro area. One has to pay great attention to the European Central Bank’s meeting and press conference on Thursday. Ahead of the meeting, the euro will clearly remain under pressure, as there is a chance that the regulator will make announcements about the monetary easing. Trading after the meeting will naturally depend on what the ECB president Mario Draghi says. The risks for the euro area bearish. Note that the euro area will also release flash manufacturing and services PMIs on Friday. If the ECB’s position doesn’t become clearer, the market will make its judgment on the basis of these data. The figures are unlikely to be very bright. The speculators’ short positions on euro have contracted, and now the single currency will be more vulnerable to the negative data.
China’s weak GDP and industrial production data released on Monday did not provide a push higher for the euro: negative sentiment is smoothed out by the expectations of additional monetary easing from the People’s Bank of China. Support is at 1.1260, 1.1215 and 1.1170. Resistance is at 1.1400, 1.1460 and 1.1500.