Currency Analyst since 2010

USD/JPY: analysts' comments

The candle USD/JPY formed last week on the weekly chart resembles a spinning top which signals the market’s uncertainty. Yet, the pair’s declining since September peak at 100.60. Analysts at Bank of America Merrill Lynch and Commerzbank point out that US dollar is approaching critical support at 96.80 (August 28 low) and 96.63 (200-day MA). Failure here will bring USD/JPY to 95.80/95.66 (August low, 5-month support line).

Note that there’s a minor divergence on the H4 chart – a sign that the bulls may push the rate a little bit higher. According to BoA, to regain control the bulls have to push the pair above 97.87 (October 3 high). Further resistance lies at 98.40 and 100.60. FBS sees a falling wedge at H4 and adds an increase above 97.45 will encourage an advance to 98.40/50. On the downside the specialists have the same targets at the BoA.

Chart. H4 USD/JPY

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