Forex trading plan for November 5
By Kira Iukhtenko
US Dollar remains well-supported ahead of the labor-market report on Friday. We believe that the demand for the greenback will last at least until the release. What’s more, even the neutral figures will be “ok” for the market. Expectations for a rate hike on December are now on the rise. The US economic calendar on Thursday is rather intense. Watch the unemployment claims (forecast – neutral) and listen to the Fed’s members Lockhart, Fisher and Dudley. These officials don’t object to a hike in 2015, so we could get more hawkish signals from this side.
EUR/USD is seen retesting the 1.0900 support as we write. Mario Draghi’s dovish comments confirm the policy divergence between the ECB and the Fed. We recommend selling the pair at the current levels with an initial target of 1.0820. Resistance is seen at 1.1070. Watch the German factory orders in euro zone tomorrow and the fresh EU economic forecasts.
GBP/USD is also trading under pressure. Market awaits the “SuperThursday” – the day when the Bank of England will announce its rate decision, release meeting minutes and Q3 inflation report. We still expect the forecasts to be revised to the downside, delaying the rate hike expectations. Cable is testing the 1.5400 mark (38.2 Fibo from the recent rally). Targetliesat 1.5360.
USD/JPY approached the flat trend line at 121.60. Monthly bullish reversal candle supports our idea to go long. Watch the Bank of Japan meeting minutes tonight. AUD/USD pulled back from 0.7220, forming a reversal candle on the H4. We still believe the bullish potential is limited. Listen to the RBA governor Stevens’ comments tonight.