Currency Analyst since 2010

USD/JPY: forecast for November 9-15

Elizabeth Belugina

USD/JPY made a break to the upside and jumped to 123.00.

US nonfarm payrolls came out significantly above forecasts, and other US labor market data were also quite positive. The expectations of the Federal Reserve’s rate hike in December increased, and this is a bullish driver for the pair. At the same time, the pair lacks bullish drivers from the Bank of Japan: Japanese officials say nothing new and give no hints that there will be an increase in monetary stimulus. This may slow the pair’s advance a bit. Still, we are working with bullish positions at this market.

The upcoming week will once again be light in terms of economic data from Japan. Only releases of current account on Monday and core machinery orders on Thursday are worth mentioning.

Pay attention to the Chinese data releases in the first 3 days of the week as these data will influence the market’s risk sentiment. Demand for Japanese yen rises in times of risk aversion and declines when the market’s risk appetite improves.

Above 123.00 resistance lies at 124.00, 124.50 and 125.00. Previous resistance at 122.00 and 121.50.   

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