Currency Analyst since 2010

EUR/USD: forecast for November 9-15

Elizabeth Belugina

The divergence in monetary policy between the European Central Bank and Federal Reserve remains the main driver of EUR/USD.

This driver is pointing to the downside. The ECB president Mario Draghi said that the central bank’s asset-purchase program could be boosted and other tools may be used to ensure inflation will return to its goal. The Fed’s Chair Janet Yellen, on the other hand, signaled that American regulator may raise interest rate in December. US labor market data increased the possibility of such step. Nonfarm payrolls rose above forecast in October gaining 271K.

Next week will start with the meetings of the European finance ministers. The officials will discuss Greece. The creditors are currently reviewing Greece’s bailout, there are still some disagreements, but the nation is said to show progress. We will also hear more from Mario Draghi on Wednesday as he will attend the forum organized by the Bank of England. Pay attention to the euro area’s GDP releases on Friday. Economists predicted last month that the region’s economy added 0.4% in Q3 up after rising by 0.3% in Q2.  

EUR/USD fell below 1.0800. A close below this level on Friday will confirm further bearish scenario for the single currency. Next support levels are at the big figures – 1.0700, 1.0600 and 1.0500. Resistance is at 1.0900, 1.1000 and 1.1050. We stick to our recommendation of selling the euro on its attempts to recover or on the break of support levels.   


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