Trading plan for November 12
FX market volatility remains subdued on Wednesday as the US and Canadian markets are closed due to the Veteran’s day celebration. US Dollar Index holds above 99 points, but lacks momentum to extend the rally for now. What to expect on Thursday? In the United States, we’ll focus on the FOMC members speeches (Yellen, Evans, Dudley, Fisher). Expectations of the bullish retail sales report on Friday are expected to support the demand for the US currency.
EUR/USD found support at 1.0700 on Wednesday, but the rallies remain limited by 1.0740 as we write. We advise going short below 1.0720 and see the key resistance at 1.0780 (local high, trend line). ECB Head Mario Draghi is scheduled to deliver two speeches on Thursday – be ready for some monetary policy hints.
GBP/USD extends the recovery, approaching the 1.5200 mark om moxed labor market report (38.2% Fibo). Break higher could open the way to 1.5250 (50% Fibo), but we expect the current rally to be short-lived. US retail sales figures on Friday will likely pull the pair down towards the 1.5000 support.
USD/JPY is trading under slight bearish pressure, but the move reminds us of a technical correction. Major resistance lies at 125.30/80, while support is seen at 121.60 (resistance of the previous sideways channel).
AUD/USD tries to recover, but remains capped by 0.7080. Keep an eye on the Australian labor market data tonight – employment is expected to improve. Nevertheless, the 0.7100 mark remains a good level to sell the pair.