Forex trading plan for November 17

Elizabeth Belugina

Stock markets moved down on the increased geopolitical risk and the market’s risk aversion. The focus this week will be on the minutes of the Federal Reserve’s more hawkish meeting on Wednesday. On Tuesday the US will release important inflation data at 13:30 GMT. At the same time, the expectations of the Fed’s rate hike in December will probably remain in any case providing support for the US dollar.   

EUR/USD once again tested levels below 1.0700, but then managed to get higher. The single currency got under negative pressure after attacks in Paris, although the bearish impact is limited as the euro has been so far perceived as a safe haven. The euro area’s October inflation figures were revised a bit to the upside on Monday. Plus the European Central Bank’s president Mario Draghi declined to comment on monetary policy in this latest speech. As a result, the pull of the bears has weakened. A daily close below 1.0700 is needed to confirm that the euro’s fall has resumed. Next support is at 1.0660 and 1.0600. Resistance is at 1.0795/1.0800. Watch German and euro area’s ZEW economic sentiment at 10:00 GMT on Tuesday.

GBP/USD faces strong resistance at 1.5260 (50% Fibo of November decline). The next resistance is at 1.5315. Support is at 1.5140 and 1.5100 ahead of 1.5000. Britain will release inflation data at 09:30 GMT. Forecast is weak (-0.1%), and a reading even worse will send the cable lower.

USD/JPY tested levels in the 122.20 area, but then returned to 123.00. In line with expectations, Japanese economy kept contracting in Q3: GDP fell by 0.3%. It means that Japan in in recession. Yet, the market’s reaction was muted, but the short-term trend line was breached to the upside. Further resistance is at 123.10, 123.60, 124.00 and 124.30. Support is at 122.00, 121.80 and 121.50.

AUD/USD is affected by the deteriorated risk sentiment. Below 0.7100 the pair is vulnerable for a decline to 0.7050. Resistance is at 0.7140 and 0.7200. The Reserve Bank of Australia will release monetary policy meeting minutes on Tuesday.  


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