Currency Analyst since 2010

EUR/USD: forecast for November 23-29

Elizabeth Belugina

Last week EUR/USD once again reversed to the downside sliding to 7-month lows just above 1.0600.

The focus remains on the monetary policy divergence between the Federal Reserve and the European Central Bank. The ECB president Mario Draghi talked dovish on Friday, while the US central bank may take on Monday the first step towards the future increase of the Fed funds rate.

Fresh euro area’s November manufacturing & services PMIs released on Monday came out better than expected. Fundamentally though, traders continue to think that the region’s economy is weak and that the ECB will inject more euros into its financial system. During the other days of the week there will be some data releases of medium importance in the euro area.

Technically the bearish momentum has slowed down. Much of the upcoming increase in the ECB’s monetary stimulus is already priced in. The same is with the expected tightening of the Fed’s policy. Still, any recovery in the euro, if happens, will be short-lived. According to the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC), net euro shorts have doubled since the middle of October, but although the number of shorts has become big, it remains below March maximum, so the possibility of further bearish pressure on the single currency is high. In fact, EUR/USD does not have many reasons to rise, so we remain the sellers.

Support is at 1.0600 ahead of 1.0520 and 1.0460. Resistance is at 1.0670, 1.0700 and 1.0800.

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