Currency Analyst since 2010

USD/JPY: forecast for Nov 30 - Dec 6

Elizabeth Belugina

During the past week USD/JPY was consolidative, but under pressure. The market’s risk sentiment was hit as Turkey shot down a Russian jet in Syria. There’s a defined short-term resistance on H4 which is currently in the 122.60 area. Support is at 122.20, 122.00, 121.80 and 121.50. Further resistance is at 122.90/123.00, 123.17, 123.40 and 123.60.

Let’s have a look at the events in Japan: economic figures here came out mixed. Japanese core consumer prices fell for the third month in a row. Household spending also contracted. However, the nation’s unemployment rate fell to the minimum since 1995 at 3.1%, and that’s a positive development. As we have been able to see in the latest months, Japanese data doesn’t have strong impact on the pair. No new measures are expected from the Bank of Japan in the coming months, and it’s still a factor limiting USD/JPY on the upside.

Next week there will be data of minor importance released in Japan. Pay most attention to the retail sales figures on Monday. The pair can draw strength only from good data from the United States, in particular, if nonfarm payrolls, due on Friday, December 4, are bright. In addition, China will release manufacturing and services PMIs on Tuesday. The data will influence the market’s risk sentiment and, consequently, the dynamics of USD/JPY. 

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