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GBP/USD: forecast for Nov 30 - Dec 6

By Kira Iukhtenko

As we expected last week, GBP/USD extended the downside and approached the 1.5000 mark. This is a strong support now – the price has already been here in early November. Decline could slow down here for a while, but we remain bearish for the cable in the medium-term. Break below 1.50 would open the way to 1.49 – and this is the lower boarder of the current bearish channel. In the medium-term, the pair is expected to depreciate towards 1.45.

There are fundamental reasons for a cheaper pound versus the US dollar: policy divergence between the Bank of England and the Federal Reserve is now on the rise. The BOE Governor Marc Carney sounded dovish last week, stating the UK interest rates could stay low for a prolonged period. Forward contracts based on GBP aren’t pricing a BOE interest-rate increase until after January 2017. Conversely, the Fed is now widely expected to hike in December. This picture is strongly negative for the cable in the coming weeks.

As for the economic calendar, on the new week pay attention to the BOE Financial Stability report and Carney’s speech on Tuesday. A range of November PMIs is on the schedule: Manufacturing index on Tuesday, Construction index on Wednesday and Services index on Thursday. On Friday, all the financial markets will be focused on the US NFP.

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