Currency Analyst since 2010

AUD/USD: momentum slowed

AUD/USD closed yesterday at $0.9549, above September highs ($0.9524/28). Australian dollar has been strengthening over the past month due to good economic data, especially from China, the Fed’s September decision not to taper bond purchases. This week demand for Aussie rose amid neutral RBA minutes and the relief about the US. Note, however, that though AUD rose to the highest levels since June, its advance after the US announced a deal to avert default was small (a deal was much prices in + this deal offers only temporary relief).

Upside momentum has declined. AUD/USD may decline from the current levels to the $0.9500 area as we see a divergence on the daily chart MACDF and RSI. Further support lies at $0.9485, $0.9450, $0.9385 and $0.9350. As long as Aussie stays above the latter, it will retain good chances for growth to $0.9700. Try longs from $0.9510 with stop at $0.9480 and target at $0.9600.    

The RBA Governor Stevens is due to speak tomorrow. Next week there will be plenty of data from the US as the government resumes work after the shutdown.  

Chart. H4 AUD/USD

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