Currency Analyst since 2010

Forex trading plan for December 10

Oil prices returned above $40 per barrel after declining to $39.80 on Tuesday, but remained under pressure. US dollar index fell approaching December 3 lows (97.60) as American currency was hit versus the euro and Japanese yen.  

EUR/USD rose to 1.0980. Germany’s trade surplus rose exceeding expectations. A break higher will bring the single currency to resistance at 1.1050 and 1.1100. Support is at 1.0850, 1.0800 and 1.0760.

GBP/USD went up above 1.5100. The Bank of England will announce its policy decision at 12:00 GMT. No changes are expected. Above 1.5110 there is potential for increase to 1.5160 and 1.5190. Support is at 1.5030/00.   

USD/JPY fell below the bottom of its monthly range. Japanese yen was in demand on the back of the market’s risk aversion and news that Japanese core machinery order jumped by 10.7%, while a decline of 1.5% was expected. Daily close below 122.20 will be a negative sign, though there will be still support at 121.50. Failure here will open the way down to 120.85 and probably lower (119.50). Resistance is at 122.35 and 123.00.  

AUD/USD tested 0.7172 on the downside, but then returned to the 0.7200 area. Australia will release labor market data at 00:30 GMT on Thursday, the forecast is negative. Resistance is at 0.7250 and 0.7280 and we prepare to sell Aussie at these levels. Support is at 0.7200 and 0.7155.

NZD/USD is holding above the 0.6600 support. Most economists expect the Reserve Bank of New Zealand to cut rate late on Wednesday. The meeting will be followed by 2 speeches of the RBNZ Governor Wheeler (20:05 GMT on Wednesday and 00:10 GMT on Thursday). What Wheeler says is going to be very important for the pair. Support is at 0.6500 (trend line), while resistance lies at 0.6687 and 0.6787.

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