Forex trading plan for January 12
Last week: Yuan’s devaluation, Chinese stocks decline, oil price falling by more than 11%, good NFP release in the US (+292K), but weak average hourly earnings.
Risk sentiment: Mildly negative. European shares made small gains, though Asian indexes fell by 2-5%. The market make take a breath after the losses of the previous week, though it’s too early at this point to say that equities have reached bottom.
USD: US labor market statistics didn’t provide the greenback with strong bullish impulse. Traders will look forward to comments of the Fed members on China and US equity markets. The Fed’s Vice Chairman Stanley Fisher will speak at 10:30 GMT.
EUR/USD: The pair met resistance at 1.0970, though the market’s risk aversion doesn’t let the euro to slide much. We lean towards cautious selling. After 1.0870 support is at1.0830, 1.0800 and 1.0685.
GBP/USD: The oversold pound has started correcting to the upside, though the general downtrend is still in place. The UK will release manufacturing production figures at 09:30 GMT (forecast is positive, though annual reading is expected to decline). The Bank of England’s Governor Mark Carney will speak at 14:15 GMT. Resistance is at 1.4640 and 1.4700 – the market will likely remain bearish below this point.
USD/JPY: Last week the pair broke below important support levels and now looks weak. US dollar will likely return to minimums. Resistance is at 118.30 and 118.70, while support is at 116.00. Pay attention to Japanese current account data and the Bank of Japan’s Kuroda speech at 10:30 GMT.
AUD/USD: Resistance is at 0.7115 (former support line). Aussie is correcting to the upside, though we think that advance won’t be long, so we’ll see this resistance as a point to enter shorts. Support is at 0.6930/00.