Currency Analyst since 2010

Forex trading plan for February 4

Oil remains one of the key topics with the continuing speculation about OPEC’s emergency meeting. Oman’s foreign minister said the meeting will be soon, though the time isn’t set yet. News from China improved (services sector growth picked up to a 6-month high in January), but the general risk sentiment remains negative. US ADP employment report showed that American economy added more jobs than expected (205K vs. the forecast of 193K).

EUR/USD jumped up. Eurozone retail sales have rebounded in December. Mario Draghi may try to discourage the bulls, when he speaks at 08:00 GMT on Thursday. Resistance is at 1.1050 (200-day MA). Support line is in the 1.0840 area and can attract buyers.

GBP/USD tested 1.4500. The cable was helped by the draft deal between Britain and the European Union and the UK services PMI, which came in line with expectations, at a rather good level. The results of the Bank of England’s meeting and quarterly inflation report are due at 12:00 GMT. No changes in policy of the central bank are expected. Governor Mark Carney will speak at 12:45 GMT. Remember that Carney’s last comments were dovish and for now the picture hasn’t changed enough for the regulator to change its position. This creates bearish risk for the pound. Resistance is at 1.4555 ahead of 1.4655. Support is at 1.4450/40.

USD/JPY fell for the third consecutive day: the positive impulse provided by the Bank of Japan is violated by the increased demand for the yen as a safe haven. The pair slid below 120.00, and we don’t recommend any long until the greenback is back above this mark. Support is at 118.15, 117.50 and 117.00. AUD/USD made this week a lower high around 0.7130. A close above 0.7120/50 is needed for Aussie to reverse to the upside. Support is at 0.7000 ahead of 0.6935. 

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