Currency Analyst since 2010

USD/JPY: forecast for February 22-28

By Elizabeth Belugina

The recovery of USD/JPY stalled ahead of the psychological level of 115.00. The level of 110.00 is an important mark. Here traders will expect more action from the Bank of Japan.

Dovish FOMC meeting minutes confirmed that the market has lost faith that the Federal Reserve will raise interest rates anytime soon. The pair doesn’t have much strength. It seems that further steps from the Bank of Japan are needed to bring USD/JPY above 115.00 and towards 120.00.  

The pressure on Japanese central bank to ease policy further increased after data showed that the nation’s economy fell more than expected in Q4: GDP contracted by 1.4% on the annualized basis vs. 0.8% expected. These figures provoke criticism of Prime Minister Shinzo Abe’s “Abenomics”. Stronger yen is one of the reasons why Japanese economy isn’t feeling particularly good. Another reason is China’s economic slowdown.

Next week Japan will release flash manufacturing PMI on Monday and inflation figures on Friday.

The market remains concerned about the global economic slowdown. As a result, demand for the yen as a safe haven will continue. We don’t expect any action from the Bank of Japan in the coming days. With G20 meeting, which starts next Friday the situation, may be more stable. It looks like we are seeing a new range of 115.00/110.00 for USD/JPY.

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