Forex trading plan for February 25
Oil went under renewed selling pressure as Saudi Arabia ruled out any production cuts. US dollar index is recovering. Watch American durable goods and unemployment claims figures on Thursday. The forecast is rather good.
GBP/USD breached 1.4000 to the downside. The pound keeps suffering because of Brexit fears. The falling oil prices add to the bearish pressure on the British currency. The UK will publish second release of GDP for Q4. No revisions to 0.5% economic growth are expected. Fundamentals don’t offer support for sterling. The currency is oversold in the short term and there’s bullish divergence on the daily chart, but this may offer only some very short-term relief. Resistance is at 1.4000 (psychological level, look for new shorts on the pullback up here) and 1.4080 (January 21 low). On the downside below 1.3880 focus on 1.3680/55 (2001 low, March 2009 low).
EUR/USD fell to support at 1.0960/40 (support line, 50% Fibo of advance since December), where it should find some support. The single currency is also feeling negative effects of concerns that Britain will leave the EU. The loss of this support will bring the pair down to 1.0830/00. Strong resistance is at 1.1050 (200-day MA). As for USD/JPY, decline below 112.00 opens the way down towards 111.00 and 110.50.
The advance of AUD/USD stalled ahead of 200-day MA. Support is at 0.7150 (100-day MA) and 0.7100. Resistance is at 0.7240 and 0.7275. Australia will release extremely important private capital expenditure figures at 00:30 GMT. The data includes the actual investments made by Australian companies in Q4 as well as investment plans for 2016-17.